You're listening to the MTG sold weekly podcast.
Download transcript (.srt)
0:00
0:04
0:14
0:18
0:20
0:21
0:26
0:30
0:37
0:41
0:46
0:50
0:54
0:58
1:03
1:08
1:13
1:21
1:26
1:33
1:36
1:40
1:47
1:53
2:01
2:09
2:11
2:14
2:21
2:29
2:30
2:34
2:42
2:43
2:52
2:59
3:03
3:09
3:14
3:19
3:27
3:29
3:32
3:37
3:42
3:49
3:54
4:00
4:04
4:12
4:18
4:24
4:28
4:32
4:35
4:45
4:49
4:55
4:59
5:03
5:11
5:16
5:22
5:28
5:33
5:39
5:45
5:51
5:53
5:58
6:06
6:10
6:15
6:21
6:23
6:27
6:32
6:39
6:44
6:51
6:56
7:01
7:05
7:09
7:11
7:14
7:19
7:20
7:25
7:29
7:34
7:40
7:42
7:48
7:52
7:59
8:04
8:09
8:10
8:13
8:14
8:17
8:18
8:18
This is the week of September 21st through September 27th, 2026.
Last week I told you the floor gets tested when physical product arrives.
Pre-release week came and it didn't crack.
It did the opposite.
The reality fracture plate booster display posted a south of ratio of 5.8.
About 1200 units moved while the shelf shrank 24%.
The price dipped about 2% to $171 and if you're looking at that dip, look at what caused it.
Sellers are racing each other as pre-release product lands in stores.
Demand grew 22% from a week that was already one of the strongest we'd seen.
The price softened because the sell side got more competitive, which is exactly what you
expect when physical product shows up in quantity.
If you were one of the sellers who listed early, you sold them to a market that showed up
faster than your listings could sit on the shelf.
Reality fracture held 50% market share again, the third consecutive week above that line,
about $621,000 across 4,500 units.
Total revenue came in just over 1.2 million on 8,500 units, down about 2% from last week.
With Manipule adding another 89,000 across 589 units.
The mix shifted down market, the collector booster display pulled back from about 245,000
to 201,000 in revenue.
The avid transaction got cheaper even as unit count held flat.
The Commander Deck multiverse reforged, normalized from about 2,000 to 1,400 units.
The price held at 69 bucks, basically flat, and the deck still turning its shelf more than
twice a week, 1,400 units of a $70 product clearing every 7 days.
The collector display farmed to about $571, still 78% above MSRP and the widest collector
premium in the market.
Stores are cracking those displays for singles.
The lose collector packing 10% while display supply dropped 36% in the same week.
A third party singles index, a non-evead.tcg, was reading about $96 per collector pack at
pre-release open.
The secret layer bundled drains 63% of its supply.
The draft night posted about a 2.9% positive sell-through ratio as stores pulled product for
pre-release events.
The pre-release pack dropped 15% as supply tripled, but the sell-through still hit 1.7.
Nearly 700 units cleared on a shelf that went from 135 to 400 average quantity, all of
it arriving and moving in the same cycle.
Both play and collector face partial North American availability delays, so you can't
cleanly separate demand from anticipated scarcity in the premium right now.
October 2nd starts sorting that out.
The LTR set BoosterBox absorbed last week's restock, price rebounded from about 307 to 329
up 7%.
Supply contracted 31%.
Seller count edged to about 49, nothing signals more allocation incoming.
If you were watching for a follow-up distributor allocation, it didn't arrive.
If seller count stays below 50 and no new product services, the floor rebuilds from here.
If it climbs past 50, more products coming and you should wait before buying.
The SeenBox has gained about 8% supply, contracted 26% following the same trajectory as the
set BoosterBox.
The 30 sellers left a located pool this week, bringing in the count from 539 to 509.
That's 74 gone in 2 weeks, while revenue stayed above 1.2 million each week.
The same 3 lines keep driving the market, reality fracture, hobbit, and Lord of the Rings.
If you're not allocated on those lines, your slice of the market keeps shrinking.
California overtook Florida for the top state by volume.
Kissing me Florida dropped off the top list entirely.
Seattle went from 6500 to 1600, the geography of who selling is shifting week to week now.
The hobbit line did about 246,000 on TCG player.
The collector display generated 164,000 but the price slipped 7%.
The playbusha display grew 16% as more sellers entered.
The price down about 5% to 158 dollars.
The gift bundle supply contracted for the second week, down from 753 to 642 average quantity.
That contraction stands out in a line where everybody else is still expanding.
The gift bundle is the one I'm following for where the hobbit correction stabilizes.
The top declining was Tarkier Soul Tire Risen, down about 21% on TCG player.
The shelf barely moved, no external catalyst found, the deck singles value reads at about
414 against the $76 market price, so the card value still supports the seal price.
My best guess is it's a correction from last week's $96 level, which was probably unfaided
by thin trading, 25 units doesn't give you much read into it.
The marble line keeps offending too.
The conifer ever gave back last week's gain, down about 12%.
If you're holding marble sealed, there is no velocity signal to ride here.
Wizards expanded reality fracture delays to Mexico and New Zealand this week.
The Star Trek Beginner box was canceled worldwide, citing production, logistics and shipping
delays, and Secret Layer introduced a printed demand model with a 9-10 month delayed fulfillment
for overflow orders.
The reality fracture delay is expanded to New regions the same week as Star Trek.
Beginner box was canceled, and Secret Layer introduced printed demand fulfillment.
That's a lot of disruption, landing at once, across different product lines.
Foundation's Commander Declas dropped this week and Trampola Source Rex is the standout.
A 2.5-salt through ratio on 227 units was supply contracting 31%.
The other 4 Foundation decks are seeing seller expansion without the velocity.
If you're pre-ordering Foundation's Commander, Rex is with a demands concentrating, releases
October 2 alongside reality fracture.
On the Card Kingdom's EMZ Front, the union voted to approve the acquisition contract
on September 22nd.
No public confirmation is formally closed.
If you sell through Card Kingdom's by-list, your baseline numbers matter more than ever
right now.
The baseline numbers are acceptance rates and spreads are the ones to have on hand when
the new ownership takes over.
Reality fracture releases October 2 alongside those North American delays.
The 5.8-positive-salt through is the number I'm following when supply normalizes.
Foundation's Commander also launches that day.
Rex is already posting a positive 2.5-salt through ratio in pre-order, and I want to see
whether that separation survives, release day supply.
The LTR floor at 3.29, supply contracted 31%, seller count below 50.
A quiet seller count and no second wave means the floor holds.
If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a restock to finish repricing, this is
your window.
Well, that's the read.
Thanks for listening.
Full article and graphs on Mgtsalt.com.
Thanks.
Have a good one.
[MUSIC]