Weekly Report (Oct 5 - 11, 2026): The Post-Release Comedown Undershoots September

You're listening to the MTG sold podcast. This is the week of October 5th through October 11th

2026

Nothing came out this week. That's it. That's the whole premise

Reality fracture is in its second week

Foundations commander is in its second week and the market did what a market does when nobody hands it a release on a Friday

Here's the number that bug me though T.C. G. player did about 970,000 on just over 7,000 units

Down 30% from release week which you'd expect

But it also came in under every

September week under the Hobbit pre-order week under the LTR wave week

It's still the lightest week since the end of August and reality fracture was still 46% of it

Last week the Hobbit line gave up share without giving up price

This week the share stayed gone

Hobbit did 509 units from

754 and held price again

Daily units ran 1100 to

1350 every single day if you're a seller

This is a week to hold your asking price not chase if you're a buyer

Nothing really moved against you

Reality fracture week 2 and I owe you correction before I give you the full story

Our supply numbers compare this week's average shelf the last weeks and last week's average includes four pre-release days when the reality

Fracture collector booster display shelf was a fraction of its release size

So the tiles on the site say it's seller count doubled and the shelf grew 60%

I nearly read that to you as a supply wave

Then I pulled the clothes of day snapshots October 4th

65 boxes 71 sellers October 11th

262 boxes 77 sellers flat

Nothing arrived

What did happen is price

The collector display went for about $483 to about $440

Down on was 9% on 478 boxes from

666 the premium over the pack equivalent sticker has gone

4649 and 36 across three weeks

The biggest seller on the shelf cut from 520 to 445 dollars

The low asking price touched 410 dollars on Friday

Price down volume down supply flat

That sellers marking into a softer week

The collector display didn't get away. It got a haircut

The reality fracture bundle is the one delayed product that visibly showed up

October 4th 119 boxes across 22 sellers October 11th

358 boxes across 65 sellers climbing every single day in between

tripled

The clearance price held at about 61 dollars and 50 cents

6% over sticker while the low asking price slid to 50 dollars under it

My read is that the delayed allocation is landing

Though no solution confirms a shipment

And the alternative is stores sitting on pre-order stock and finally listing it once the price stopped moving

Then the reality fracture secret layer bundle

Which ships October 23rd and was the top declineer in the entire market

Down 24% from $240 to 183

Last week it told you the drain had stopped on Monday the 6th

One new seller listed 62 units at about $174

The shelf went from 91 listings to 182 in a day

And the biggest incumbent cut from 241 dollars to 178 dollars

Seller count was 14 on the 4th and 14th on the 11th

One listing did this and the $183 is still 103% over the $90 sticker with release stock not on the shelf yet

If you're holding at pre-order prices you're the high asking price on your own shelf now

Foundations commander were all 5 decks went up and I want to be careful about why

Rain of dragons leads TCG player gainers up 16% to about $44

Calling all angels up 14

Wretched ranks up 13 and trampol source wrecks up 9% to about 58 dollars

Now 92% over the $30 sticker

Even King Engineering last week's bottom of the market recovered 7% to $28

Still under sticker the only one of the 5

Every one of those rows on falling volume the 5 decks moved 625 units from over a thousand and the shelves drained

Calling all angels went from 66 boxes to 30 in 7 days

Rex went from 56 to 35

Nobody restocked anything

Last week I asked whether wreck shelf would refill it did not

Sellers nearly doubled on wrecks and the shelf still shrink which means the new sellers are listing 2 or 3 copies each and selling out

Price up with volume down is a shelf running out as best I can tell launch allocation sold through and stores haven't reordered yet

Or they're holding the second carton for the holidays

For any of the 5 the market is paying more because there's less of it and that holds exactly until the next box lands

Fallout volume across the 5 universe beyond Fallout products tripled from 235 units to 558 and 4 of the 5 got marked down

Scrappy survivors fell 22% to about $64.50 on 118 units from 25

The commander debt case fell 11% to about $278 and still did almost 33,000

Hail Caesar fell a second straight week $101.87 to 75

A small Fallout reprint is trickling into the market and that's pretty much what we're seeing

Price down with volume up 5 times is sellers cutting and buyers taking the size

Whether that's reprint cases reaching stores or stores clearing ahead of it

I can't tell from the tape but Hail Caesar's sell through is 0.42 positive

So new supply is outrunning buyers at this price

Star Trek 5 weeks out from November 13th and this one's a single listing wearing a trench coat

The Star Trek collector booster displayed pre-order shelf on TCG player

sat between 139 and 175 boxes all week 22 to 24 sellers

Then on Sunday it closed at 365 boxes

Same 22 sellers one seller went from 25 listed boxes to 217 at about $663

That's 61% of the entire pre-order shelf in one listing

Either that's a store listing its full allocation or it's a distributor backed listing

And those look identical in our data

Keep an eye out on whether that 217 moves and whether anyone follows it to 663

The Star Trek play booster display built the normal way

224 boxes to 284 across new sellers price flat at about $152

27% under what 30 packs cost at sticker

If you want Star Trek play boosters their pre-order is already under MSRP

Quick ones

The Lord of the Rings set booster box resolved none of last week's three branches

300 broke by 22 cents on half the volume

And sellers went from 64 to 66

Test resets under $295 with sellers above 70 is wave 2 winning

Sell through back above 1 with sellers flat is the floor holding

Maniple did about 88,000 down from 117,000

And the place to venue split is the reality fracture, Commander deck, Multifords,

Multiverse reforged

Maniple volume went from 108 units to 164

While TCG players copy have to 757

Both venues cleared within a dollar 50 of each other

Same deck, same price, opposite direction on volume

One piece of news because it touches every box on this tape

On October 5th, Wizard said that starting with Nauticus

That the first set of 2020 7

Play boosters become booster packs with no guaranteed foil

Collector boosters lose three foil commons and uncommons

And Godpacks show up in 1,000 booster packs and 1,300 collector boosters

Prices don't change

Which means every 2026 collector booster box you're looking at right now

Is the last of the current configuration

I don't know yet what the market does with that

I'd watch the reality fracture and star track collector tiers for the answer

What I'm watching reality fracture week 3

Does the collector display hold a 36% premium on a flat

260 box shelf or does that 410 low asking price

Become the clearing price

Does the bundles triple shelf push the price under the 58 dollar sticker

And the reality fracture secret layer bundle into the October 23rd

Does the 62 units seller get undercut in how far it is 90 dollars

I'm sorry how far toward 90 dollars does it slide when release stock lands

Hasbro Q3 earnings Tuesday October 20th

8 30 a.m. Eastern

Watson growth against a mid single digit guide

Consumer products in inventory into Q4 and whether the 5 to 7% full year guide moves

You'll get to take the morning of the call

That's it. That's the week a flight collector shelf a triple bundle shelf and one seller with

217 star track boxes

Full article and numbers and graphs on empty G sold calm

See you next time

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(upbeat music)