Speaker: You're listening to the MTG sold weekly podcast.
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Speaker: This is the week of June eighth
Speaker: to June fourteenth, twenty
Speaker: twenty six.
Speaker: Hey everyone.
Speaker: Revenue is down this week seven hundred and seventy two K on
Speaker: five thousand seven hundred and sixty units off about twenty two
Speaker: percent from last week's million dollar print, but units only
Speaker: dipped around three percent.
Speaker: The entire revenue decline is
Speaker: one product the Marvel
Speaker: Superheroes Collector Booster
Speaker: display.
Speaker: It went from seven hundred and
Speaker: seven units last week to two
Speaker: hundred and seventy four this
Speaker: week.
Speaker: That single SKU accounts for
Speaker: nearly all of the missing two
Speaker: hundred and twenty K. The rest
Speaker: of the market was basically
Speaker: flat.
Speaker: Daily flow was stable for once.
Speaker: No mayhem spikes, no weird outlier days.
Speaker: Monday through Friday ranged from eight hundred and twenty
Speaker: eight units to one thousand two hundred and twenty three units,
Speaker: and the weekend tapered to the seven hundred and seventy to the
Speaker: eight hundred and thirty range.
Speaker: A normal week.
Speaker: I like normal weeks.
Speaker: They're easier to read.
Speaker: All right.
Speaker: The Marvel story evolved significantly.
Speaker: Three of my watch items dropped
Speaker: off the board entirely, and the
Speaker: Chocobo bundle finally broke
Speaker: out.
Speaker: Let me get into it.
Speaker: So jumping into the headlines, Marvel the crunch spread.
Speaker: Last week I said if the
Speaker: collector boosted display
Speaker: average quantity drop below two
Speaker: hundred while sell through held
Speaker: the product Reprices upward
Speaker: average quantity dropped to one
Speaker: hundred and seventy eight point
Speaker: eight.
Speaker: Sell through stayed above a ratio of one point zero at one
Speaker: point five three, and the volume weighted average price jumped
Speaker: four hundred and sixty nine dollars to five hundred and nine
Speaker: dollars, a clean eight point five percent move.
Speaker: That prediction played out exactly, but the more
Speaker: interesting development is what happened around it.
Speaker: The crunch was not just a collector boosters anymore.
Speaker: It spread across the entire Marvel product line.
Speaker: Seven products posted sell through above a ratio of one
Speaker: point oh this week.
Speaker: Seven.
Speaker: Let me just run them through
Speaker: them quickly because of the
Speaker: scope of.
Speaker: This is pretty unusual.
Speaker: One.
Speaker: So the jumpstart booster display sell through around ratio of
Speaker: around two point seven six.
Speaker: Supply down around fifty five percent.
Speaker: Average quantity collapsed to sixty eight.
Speaker: This is the hottest product in
Speaker: the data this week by absorption
Speaker: rate.
Speaker: Next, the Avengers assemble commander deck.
Speaker: Sell through ratio of around two point three six.
Speaker: Supply down around fifty four percent two hundred and two.
Speaker: Units moved at sixty six dollars fifty one cents.
Speaker: The Doom prevails.
Speaker: Commander deck sell through
Speaker: ratio of about two point three
Speaker: one.
Speaker: Supply down around thirty nine percent.
Speaker: Two hundred and thirty units at one hundred and one dollars
Speaker: fifty two cents.
Speaker: Fantastic four commander deck
Speaker: sell through ratio of one point
Speaker: eight nine supply, down forty
Speaker: three percent.
Speaker: The Marvel Gift bundle sell
Speaker: through ratio of one point six
Speaker: six supply collapsed sixty one
Speaker: percent.
Speaker: Sellers halved from twelve point
Speaker: five to six and the price did
Speaker: not.
Speaker: It just didn't move.
Speaker: It detonated.
Speaker: Volume.
Speaker: Weighted volume.
Speaker: Weighted average price of ninety
Speaker: six dollars eighty five cents to
Speaker: one hundred and thirty dollars
Speaker: sixteen cents.
Speaker: This is a thirty four point four single week price increase at
Speaker: twenty nine point six average quantity and six sellers.
Speaker: This product is nearly extinct on TCG player and the collector
Speaker: booster display sell through of ratio of one point five three.
Speaker: Average quantity one hundred and seventy eight point eight.
Speaker: Price up eight point five percent.
Speaker: As mentioned, this is the Marvel
Speaker: Collector booster display and
Speaker: the.
Speaker: Wanda.
Speaker: Oh, sorry, Wanda.
Speaker: The Wakanda Forever Commander deck sell through of about one
Speaker: point four two supply down around twenty four percent.
Speaker: The play booster display is the one that did not make the sell
Speaker: through ratio above the one point oh list, but it's close at
Speaker: zero point nine one.
Speaker: And here's what's interesting about it.
Speaker: Supply grew forty nine percent to eight hundred and nine.
Speaker: Average quantity and sellers grew thirty two percent.
Speaker: This is the Marvel play boosters, by the way, a massive
Speaker: restock wave landed on the plate boosters and the sell through
Speaker: was still zero point nine one.
Speaker: So again, that's still positive.
Speaker: Demand almost kept up with the
Speaker: forty nine percent supply
Speaker: increase and price held at the
Speaker: one hundred and thirty five
Speaker: dollars and seventy six
Speaker: essentially flat.
Speaker: So the picture is distributors restock the play booster
Speaker: aggressively and demand nearly absorbed all of it.
Speaker: Meanwhile, everything else in
Speaker: the Marvel product line is
Speaker: draining faster than it can be
Speaker: replenished.
Speaker: The Commander Dex in particular, are moving at two hundred units
Speaker: per week, each with supply pools enough eighty five to one
Speaker: hundred and fifty range.
Speaker: That math does not work out for more than a few weeks.
Speaker: I said last week that if the sell through stayed above two
Speaker: point zero on the collector boosters on the collector
Speaker: boosters, volume weighted average price could accelerate
Speaker: sell through dropped from three point zero to one point five as
Speaker: the restock hit, but the price moved anyway because the restock
Speaker: was not enough.
Speaker: The question for next week is
Speaker: whether a second restock wave is
Speaker: coming.
Speaker: If it is, the collector booster might stabilize in the five
Speaker: hundred to five ten range.
Speaker: If it's not, five fifty is in play and now jumping in to last
Speaker: week's call outs.
Speaker: The Chocobo bundle finally broke out.
Speaker: Volume weighted average price at two hundred and forty one
Speaker: dollars to two hundred and seventy eight dollars, a fifteen
Speaker: point five percent move.
Speaker: I've been tracking this product for three weeks now.
Speaker: Seller count crossed below fifty two weeks ago and supply thin
Speaker: steadily and the price sat flat waiting for a catalyst.
Speaker: This week the catalyst showed up.
Speaker: Thirty four units moved at two
Speaker: hundred and seventy eight
Speaker: dollars.
Speaker: Volume weighted average price.
Speaker: Supply held flat at ninety six
Speaker: dollars and sellers actually
Speaker: ticked up slightly to forty
Speaker: seven.
Speaker: Some new entrants at the higher price sell through ratio is
Speaker: sitting at zero point three five on a stable supply base.
Speaker: The move looks real and not just thin liquidity noise.
Speaker: Moving on with last week's callouts, Districts Haven Bundle
Speaker: did not find a floor at forty nine dollars volume weighted
Speaker: average price dropped another ten percent to forty four
Speaker: dollars eleven cents.
Speaker: Supply grew twenty six percent to three hundred and ninety one.
Speaker: Sellers grew twelve percent.
Speaker: I flagged this as a question two
Speaker: weeks ago, and the answer is
Speaker: clear now forty nine dollars was
Speaker: not support.
Speaker: The product is still in a supply build price decline cycle.
Speaker: Sell through is actually decent at zero point three four.
Speaker: So demand exists.
Speaker: It's just being outrun by new listings at this point.
Speaker: This bottoms out when the price
Speaker: gets cheap enough that sellers
Speaker: stop bothering to list maybe
Speaker: forty dollars.
Speaker: Is that level?
Speaker: Maybe not.
Speaker: Lorwyn blight curse.
Speaker: I've been tracking this product for four weeks now.
Speaker: The trajectory minus thirteen
Speaker: percent plus fourteen percent,
Speaker: and now minus twenty four point
Speaker: six percent.
Speaker: Volume weighted average price fell thirty two dollars to
Speaker: twenty four dollars twenty seven cents on sixty six units across
Speaker: thirty two orders.
Speaker: Bulk buying at discount supply is still at an average of four
Speaker: hundred and thirteen and Selter improved to a ratio of zero
Speaker: point one six, which is the actual which is actually the
Speaker: highest it's ever been.
Speaker: But the price collapsed because someone cleared out the cheap
Speaker: end of the order book.
Speaker: This product has been a
Speaker: volatility story, not a trend
Speaker: story, and this week confirms
Speaker: it.
Speaker: I'm gonna try.
Speaker: I'm gonna stop tracking it
Speaker: weekly unless the supply picture
Speaker: changes, because the structural
Speaker: oversupply has not moved in a
Speaker: month.
Speaker: And finally, for the last of the call outs from last week, the
Speaker: avatar booster collector booster display, the foundation's
Speaker: collector booster display, and the Doctor Who commander deck
Speaker: display all dropped out of the cohort this week.
Speaker: Three of my five watch items went silent.
Speaker: This is the same pattern as Commander Masters and Lost
Speaker: Caverns a few weeks ago.
Speaker: Volume drops below the reporting threshold and data goes dark.
Speaker: None of these are confirmed dead or confirmed stable.
Speaker: They're just quiet.
Speaker: I will keep checking the raw numbers when I can, but I can't
Speaker: follow up in the podcast until they generate enough
Speaker: transactions to reappear.
Speaker: All right.
Speaker: And that finishes out our caller from last week.
Speaker: We're going to shift over to some geography call outs.
Speaker: Um this week this one is worth noting.
Speaker: Uh, last week Washington state held, uh, it led, I'm sorry, at
Speaker: eleven point nine percent of tracked inventory with Seattle
Speaker: holding eight thousand three hundred and twenty six units.
Speaker: This week, Washington dropped to five percent.
Speaker: And Seattle is not even in top ten cities anymore.
Speaker: California took the lead at ten point six percent, followed by
Speaker: Texas at seven point one and Oregon at six point four.
Speaker: The top city is now Quebec City
Speaker: at four hundred, I'm sorry, at
Speaker: four thousand two hundred and
Speaker: sixty eight units, followed by
Speaker: Gahanna, Ohio at two thousand
Speaker: two hundred and twenty three and
Speaker: Brooklyn at two thousand and
Speaker: forty four.
Speaker: Liberty, Indiana showed up with number four at one thousand nine
Speaker: hundred and ninety units.
Speaker: That is the new entrant into the city rankings.
Speaker: Uh, and the Pacific Northwest
Speaker: combination of Washington,
Speaker: Oregon and Idaho went from
Speaker: twenty two percent to seventeen
Speaker: point one percent of total
Speaker: supply.
Speaker: Still significant, but no longer
Speaker: the dominant, the dominant
Speaker: block.
Speaker: The geographic distribution is spreading out, which generally
Speaker: means more sellers from more regions are entering the market.
Speaker: That tends to correspond to healthier supply depth.
Speaker: Long term.
Speaker: Two more things.
Speaker: The Tarkir Dragon Dragonstorm
Speaker: Commander Deck Temur War,
Speaker: quietly posted a delta ratio of
Speaker: zero point nine five percent
Speaker: zero point nine five on seventy
Speaker: one units, with supply dropping
Speaker: thirty three percent to average
Speaker: quantity seventy five, and
Speaker: sellers went down fourteen point
Speaker: five percent.
Speaker: That is the same near one point
Speaker: zero sell through ratio
Speaker: inflection point.
Speaker: I flagged Doctor Who uh, at two
Speaker: weeks ago, and it's on a product
Speaker: with two point four x. The
Speaker: volume price only moved two
Speaker: percent to sixty eight point
Speaker: five nine.
Speaker: So the market has not noticed yet if sell through crosses one
Speaker: point zero next week, this becomes one of the tighter
Speaker: tarkir products and the dusk more an endless punishment.
Speaker: Commander deck has a sell through of zero point seven
Speaker: three at average quantity thirty seven point two, down twenty six
Speaker: percent on supply, with sellers down twenty three percent.
Speaker: This product has quietly been draining for weeks at thirty
Speaker: seven average quantity.
Speaker: It is the same territory where foundations collector booster
Speaker: was when I started flagging it, and the sell through is higher
Speaker: twenty seven units at one hundred and eighty one volume.
Speaker: Weighted average price is not a
Speaker: headline number, but the supply
Speaker: mechanics are telling a
Speaker: consistent story.
Speaker: Alrighty.
Speaker: Jumping into our last section segment what to watch next week.
Speaker: Six things.
Speaker: Sorry, this is a big week.
Speaker: One Marvel collector booster
Speaker: display volume weighted average
Speaker: price moved to five hundred and
Speaker: nine dollars.
Speaker: Average quantity at one hundred and seventy eight point eight.
Speaker: Sell through ratio of one point five three.
Speaker: The first restock wave arrived and was not enough.
Speaker: If a second wave does not land
Speaker: next week, five fifty is
Speaker: realistic.
Speaker: If it does, the product plateaus
Speaker: in the five hundred to five ten
Speaker: range.
Speaker: Either outcome is informative.
Speaker: Two.
Speaker: Marvel Commander Dex as a tier.
Speaker: All four are above the one point four x sell through ratio.
Speaker: With supply contracting twenty four to fifty four percent,
Speaker: these are the products most likely to reprice upward.
Speaker: Next.
Speaker: Doom prevails at one hundred and one dollars fifty two cents is
Speaker: already the most expensive and moving the most volume two
Speaker: hundred and thirty units.
Speaker: If it breaks one hundred and ten
Speaker: dollars, the other three
Speaker: probably follow.
Speaker: Three.
Speaker: Chocobo bundle at two hundred and seventy eight dollars.
Speaker: The breakout happened.
Speaker: Now the question is whether it holds or whether new sellers
Speaker: enter at the higher price and push it back down.
Speaker: Seller count taking down from forty five point six to an
Speaker: average of forty seven point one, suggests some new entrants
Speaker: are already showing up.
Speaker: If the count stays below fifty and volume weighted average
Speaker: price holds above the two hundred and sixty five dollars
Speaker: the move is confirmed for strict save and bundle.
Speaker: Is forty four dollars the floor?
Speaker: Or does the supply build?
Speaker: Keep pushing it lower?
Speaker: Sell through is still decent at zero point three four.
Speaker: If demand absorbs the next batch
Speaker: of new listings without another
Speaker: price drop, this may finally
Speaker: stabilize.
Speaker: Five.
Speaker: Timor Raw at zero point nine
Speaker: five sell through if it crosses
Speaker: one point zero next week on
Speaker: similar supply contraction, flag
Speaker: it.
Speaker: Takir commander decks have been
Speaker: under the radar while everyone
Speaker: watches Marvel.
Speaker: Six.
Speaker: Dusk.
Speaker: Morn.
Speaker: Endless punishment at thirty seven point two.
Speaker: Average quantity.
Speaker: If it drops below thirty, this
Speaker: becomes one of the thinnest
Speaker: commander products on the market
Speaker: at one hundred and eighty one
Speaker: dollars volume weighted average
Speaker: price.
Speaker: That is a product where supply scarcity translates to
Speaker: meaningful price movement fast.
Speaker: That's it.
Speaker: Numbers are in the full report on the article on MTG sold.
Speaker: See you next week.