Weekly Report (Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026)

You're listening to the MTG Soul Weekly Podcast.

This is the week of June 29th to July 5th, 2026.

(upbeat music)

Everyone, first full week after Marvel Superhero's release

and it came with the July 4th weekend.

A little under a million dollars, 899,711

and TCG players sell revenue.

That was across 5,812 units.

Overall, down 10% on revenue,

down 21% on units from last week.

That does sound like a cool down

and I think some of it is,

but July 4th landing on a Saturday

crushed the weekend numbers.

Saturday and Sunday average 780 units

versus the normal 1,100 on the weekdays.

Average sale price actually went up from $136 to $155

because the buyer mixed shifted towards collector products.

So fewer people bought, but the ones who did

sped more.

I think this is mostly a holiday dip.

The weekday numbers look normal, we'll know next week.

Jumping into the headlines for the week.

Avengers assemble and doom prevails

finally got restocked enough.

This is a story I've been tracking for three weeks

and it resolved.

Two weeks ago, Avengers assemble was at 41.8

average quantity with 3.86 sell-through.

Last week, the first restock derived,

supply grew 58% and sell-through barely budge

from the sell-through ratio of 3.78.

I said the restocked arrived and it was not enough.

This week, a second wave hit.

Average quantity more than doubled from 66.2

to 149.8.

Sellers grew from 16.1 to 42.

Sell-through dropped though to 0.89.

Price down 4.5% to $68.66.

Doom prevails followed the same pattern.

Average quantity grew from 87.3 to $160.

I'm sorry, 260 units.

Sellers from 20.8 to 44.7.

Sell-through fell to 0.92, price down 6.9% to $93.15.

Both products are still absorbing

at healthy rates near one to one,

which means demand did not disappear.

But the structural crunch is over.

These are no longer a scarcity product.

They are normally supplied commandodex with solid demand.

That is a different and less interesting story,

so I'm retiring both from the weekly tracking thread.

In the next headline, Jumpstart is now the only story.

Here's what makes the Jumpstart number strange.

Every other Marvel product got restocked

over the past two weeks.

Jumpstart lost another 15% of its inventory,

volume-in-average price went from $128 and 57 cents

to $154.44, up 20% in one week.

Sell-through with a positive ratio of 3.33,

average quantity dropped from 52.2 to 44.5,

which is the below the 50-year threshold

I flagged last week as the scarcity trigger.

Cellar count ticked up from 14.9 to 17.

So, new sellers are trying to participate,

but they can't list products that don't exist in the channel.

The Watsy and the distributor supply constraint

on Jumpstart is still in effect.

Whatever is holding this product back

is not a normal restart delay.

It has been weeks.

At 44.5 average quantity with a 3.3 XL through,

the supply runway is measured in days.

If this drops below 40 next week,

I think we see it moved towards 170, 180.

I don't say that lightly though,

because I've been cautious about price predictions

in prior episodes, but the mechanics here

are as clear as they get.

In the next headline, FD is building quietly.

I want to flag this because it's easy to miss

a week dominated by Marvel.

The FD is displayed gain 14.3%

to 1458 vol. weighted average price.

63 units at 1458.

That is 91,868 dollars in weekly revenue from one product.

Supply contracted 21.6%

sellers down 13.3%.

Sell through 0.59 ratio.

The collector booster pack, the individual pack,

gained 16.7% up to $125.57

on supply down 25.1%.

Both products are tightening on supply simultaneously

and neither has had the kind of event catalyst

that drove the Marvel crunch.

My read, this is just a post launch absorption,

working through the available inventory.

It makes it quieter and I think more sustainable.

A price move driven by gradual supply drawdown

is harder to reverse with a single restock

than a spike driven by a pre-release weekend.

In the next headline,

Seen boxes broke below $27.

Third consecutive week on the declineer board.

Villains unleashed at $26.26.22.

Here was united at $26.93,

both down 14 to 16%.

But here is something that changed.

Volume roughly doubled on both.

Villains went from 66 to 119 units.

Heroes from 81 to 127 units.

The lower price is attracting bargain buyers

and supply actually contracted 12%

on both as some sellers presumably decided

$26 was not worth elisting.

Sell through ratio improved on a scale roughly of 10%.

I'm not gonna call this a four,

589 units of inventory with 119 selling per week

is still a five week backlog on villains,

but the direction changed for the first time.

Demand is responding to price

and supplies responding to seller exits.

As sell through gets above 0.30 next week

and mechanics start working in the right direction,

we'll see what happens.

I personally am not bullish on this product at all.

Some follow ups from last week,

Chocobal Bundle, $294.82,

up 3%, supply down to 96.1, sellers at 51.0.

Last week I said if this holds above the $280,

the equilibrium is 285 to 295.

It held and bounced.

I think this is subtle,

the breakout from 239 resolved to a 285 to 95 equilibrium.

Unless something structural changes,

I'm dropping it from the weekly tracking.

In the next follow up, Structave and Bundle,

$38.50 down 5.6%.

Two weeks ago I said one more data point

now call the floor,

then decline reaccelerated from a minus 3.3%

to minus 4.4% to a whopping 5.6% negative.

I was wrong about the floor being in the low 40s.

This product is still falling.

Supply is slightly down to 476.7,

but sell through at a ratio of 0.27

is not enough to stabilize the price.

Keeping it active, the floor might be 35.37.

Avatar collector, bruiser display,

$419.01, up to 2.1%,

supply down 17.1%,

275.9.

Still tightening,

but the pace is slower than the final fantasy collector tier.

The pack dropped below the reporting threshold this week,

so I'm only tracking the display going forward.

One of the pairs gone,

which weakens the signal,

keeping it active with lower confidence.

Duskmoren endless punishment.

I've been talking about this for almost like seven weeks now.

Drop below the reporting threshold,

the volume went quiet.

I don't know if that means of the product stabilized

at $194 or if demand evaporated.

No did it really evaluate this week.

We're tying this until next week.

Well, conda forever, $53.37,

basically flat plus 0.3% in the price.

Sell through ratio of 0.86,

average quantity of $208.8,

cents, I'm sorry, 208.8 units,

down 6.9%.

The post-restock level is holding in the low 50s.

Supply is slowly contracting.

This product finally's equilibrium,

retiring from this thread.

One new thread,

last caverns, Velocer Amptor Deck.

This appeared on the sell-through table

at 1.43x on 50.3 average quantity.

Volume-witted average price, $104.97,

and 90 cents on 72 units across 72 orders,

all single copy purchases.

Supply contracted 25.5%,

sellers down 11.4%.

An older product quietly draining, flagging it.

If sell-through holds above 1.0 next week,

this is a real crunch.

If it drops back below,

it was a one week compression.

We'll see next week.

And for our final segment, what to watch next week?

One, jumpstart boost display,

below 40 average quantity is the next threshold.

If it gets there with sell-through still above 3.0,

$170 plus volume-weighted average price

is the target.

Seller count is the secondary indicator.

Two, post-holiday volume recovery.

If total cohort revenue bounces back above 950K,

and units above 6,000,

the July 4 dip was seasonal.

If it stays below the post-release demand curve,

may be bending.

Three, final fantasy collector boost display.

At $1,458 on supply down 21.6%,

if the drawdown continues,

1,500 plus is next if supply stabilizes the move stalls.

Four, scene box sell-through,

both double that volume at $26.27,

if sell-through gets above the 0.3.0,

the floor is forming.

If not, sub $24.

Five, Strix Heaven bundle, $38.50,

and still falling,

35.37 is the next range of test.

That's it,

numbers are in their four-port MTG sold.

See you next week.