Speaker: Hey everyone.
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Speaker: Quieter week six thousand one hundred units.
Speaker: Just over a million dollars in
Speaker: revenue, down about twenty four
Speaker: percent in volume from last
Speaker: week.
Speaker: But that number needs some context because last week had
Speaker: mayhem baked into it.
Speaker: If you stripped the mayhem spike
Speaker: out of last week's data, the
Speaker: surrounding days ran about seven
Speaker: hundred and eighty six units per
Speaker: day.
Speaker: This week averaged about eight hundred and seventy five, so the
Speaker: actual underlying pace might have slightly improved.
Speaker: The top line decline is really just the absence of a sale day.
Speaker: The more interesting shift is the product mix.
Speaker: Average revenue per unit went up from one hundred and fifty five
Speaker: dollars to one hundred and seventy one dollars.
Speaker: The market moved fewer boxes,
Speaker: but the boxes it moved were more
Speaker: expensive.
Speaker: Marvel superheroes accounted for over forty percent of total
Speaker: revenue by itself.
Speaker: That one IP is carrying the week.
Speaker: All right, let me get into the supply side because there are
Speaker: three stories this week and they are all doing different things.
Speaker: Jumping into the headlines, Marvel is absorbing everything.
Speaker: I want to start with Marvel
Speaker: superheroes, because the sell
Speaker: through numbers are kind of
Speaker: remarkable.
Speaker: The Marvel Superheroes Collector
Speaker: Booster Display posted a sell
Speaker: through ratio of two point nine
Speaker: eight.
Speaker: Again, if you're new here, sell
Speaker: through ratio is just a metric
Speaker: to see the price and I'm sorry,
Speaker: the sell amount and the supply
Speaker: amount and positive ratio means
Speaker: the supply to sell through ratio
Speaker: is good.
Speaker: In this case, we have a positive
Speaker: of two point nine eight zero
Speaker: being neutral, one being
Speaker: positive, minus one being
Speaker: negative.
Speaker: So again, Marvel Collector Booster Display posted a sell
Speaker: through of two point nine eight.
Speaker: A ratio of two point nine eight.
Speaker: Nearly three units sold for
Speaker: every unit of average listed
Speaker: inventory.
Speaker: Say that again.
Speaker: Nearly three units sold for
Speaker: every unit of average listed
Speaker: inventory.
Speaker: Seven hundred and seven units
Speaker: moved at four hundred and sixty
Speaker: nine.
Speaker: Volume weighted average price supply dropped twenty eight
Speaker: percent week over week and sellers dropped seven percent.
Speaker: The play boosted display is even more telling because it has a
Speaker: much bigger inventory pool five hundred and forty three average
Speaker: quantity and still posted a ratio of one point four seven
Speaker: sell through seven hundred and ninety nine units on five
Speaker: hundred and forty three.
Speaker: Average supply means demand is
Speaker: chewing through listings faster
Speaker: than they appear, and this is
Speaker: the high volume product, not the
Speaker: premium one.
Speaker: And the gift bundle came in at a sell through ratio of one point
Speaker: nine eight three.
Speaker: Products sell above the one
Speaker: point zero sell through ratio
Speaker: from the same set in the same
Speaker: week.
Speaker: That is most unusual.
Speaker: Most sets maybe have one product running hot at any given time.
Speaker: Marvel has three across three
Speaker: different price tiers, with the
Speaker: collector booster nearly at
Speaker: three x. Now, the obvious
Speaker: question is whether this is
Speaker: sustainable or whether a
Speaker: distributor restock just hasn't
Speaker: landed yet.
Speaker: IP crossover products can cool
Speaker: fast once the novelty passes and
Speaker: the distributor waves show up
Speaker: without warning.
Speaker: There is one puzzle worth
Speaker: naming, though the a collector
Speaker: booster is absorbing at nearly
Speaker: three X and the price barely
Speaker: moved down a quarter of a
Speaker: percent flat.
Speaker: One possible explanation mayhem
Speaker: last week may have already
Speaker: cleared out the cheapest tier of
Speaker: listings.
Speaker: That's right, in the four
Speaker: hundred and sixty nine dollars
Speaker: floor is firm, and what is
Speaker: draining now is mid-priced depth
Speaker: rather than fresh, low priced
Speaker: inventory.
Speaker: Price moves show up once the
Speaker: remaining depth ends another
Speaker: notch.
Speaker: If it's wrong and a restock wave
Speaker: hits sell through normalizes and
Speaker: the whole ratio loses its
Speaker: meaning.
Speaker: But right now the numbers are saying demand is real and supply
Speaker: is behind that two hundred and thirty seven average quantity on
Speaker: the collective booster drops below two hundred next week.
Speaker: While sell through holds, you're looking at a genuine supply
Speaker: crunch on a four hundred and sixty nine dollars product.
Speaker: That is kind of a thing that tends to move price upward,
Speaker: whether sellers want it or not.
Speaker: In the next headline, strict
Speaker: saving is sorting its own
Speaker: hierarchy.
Speaker: This one is interesting because it happens inside a single set.
Speaker: The Secret of Strict Saving bundle drop thirty percent
Speaker: breaking below forty nine dollars for the first time, and
Speaker: supply grew eighteen percent, sellers grew nine percent.
Speaker: The bundle is where everyone is dumping new inventory.
Speaker: Meanwhile, two strict Saving
Speaker: Commander decks went the other
Speaker: direction.
Speaker: Silver Quill Influence gained twelve percent on shrinking
Speaker: supply listings, down ten point five percent, sellers down
Speaker: fifteen point four percent.
Speaker: That is a classic tightening pattern.
Speaker: Fewer people listing.
Speaker: Fewer units available.
Speaker: Price climbing Prismari artistry
Speaker: gained ten point five percent
Speaker: two, though against growing
Speaker: supply, which makes it a weaker
Speaker: signal.
Speaker: What I think is happening is pretty straightforward.
Speaker: The bundle is the cheapest way into Strix Haven sealed.
Speaker: So when sellers get inventory, they want to move quickly.
Speaker: They list bundles.
Speaker: That pushes the bundle supply up and the bundle price down.
Speaker: The commander decks are lower
Speaker: volume, more collector oriented,
Speaker: and the sellers who hold those
Speaker: are less motivated to race to
Speaker: the bottom.
Speaker: So the product line is stratifying.
Speaker: The entry level product gets cheaper while the specialty
Speaker: products hold or gain.
Speaker: The question for next week is
Speaker: whether the bundle finds a
Speaker: floor.
Speaker: Around forty nine dollars sell
Speaker: through is actually still solid
Speaker: at a ratio of zero point three
Speaker: two.
Speaker: demand exists at this price.
Speaker: If the supply influx slows down, even a little, forty nine
Speaker: dollars could be the support.
Speaker: But if sellers keep piling in, there is room for it to drift
Speaker: lower before stabilizing.
Speaker: For this next section, I want to do a new, uh, a new segment
Speaker: called last week's Call Outs.
Speaker: And how did they do?
Speaker: And so I'm going to try to follow up on things I flag
Speaker: because it just, it makes, it's easy to make predictions and
Speaker: then never check on them.
Speaker: And I kind of want to avoid having to do that or just avoid
Speaker: doing that in general.
Speaker: So, um, some call outs as a
Speaker: fraternity is the play booster
Speaker: display.
Speaker: Uh, last week I said this was
Speaker: the demand test supply had grown
Speaker: thirty four percent and the
Speaker: price held.
Speaker: And the question was whether it would hold.
Speaker: Again, it did not.
Speaker: Price dropped six point two percent this week.
Speaker: Supply grew another twenty seven percent.
Speaker: Sell through is zero point four zero, which is decent.
Speaker: But the inventory build up is winning the race.
Speaker: The initial scarcity premium is
Speaker: fading and the product is
Speaker: settling into whatever its
Speaker: equilibrium price is going to
Speaker: be.
Speaker: The commander decks from that
Speaker: set are still holding up,
Speaker: though.
Speaker: World Shaper gained thirteen point six percent this week with
Speaker: healthier supply dynamics.
Speaker: Another call out from last week was the Eclipse Commander deck
Speaker: blight curse last week.
Speaker: This was the oversupply poster child sell through ratio of zero
Speaker: point zero nine.
Speaker: Supply stacking price falling
Speaker: this week it bounced fourteen
Speaker: percent, which looks great on
Speaker: paper until you notice it was
Speaker: twenty one units and average
Speaker: quantity grew to four hundred
Speaker: and twelve.
Speaker: The bounce happened on nothing.
Speaker: Twenty one units against four hundred units of supply is not a
Speaker: trend reversal, it's noise.
Speaker: If anything, the fact that supply kept growing makes this
Speaker: situation worse, not better.
Speaker: The price bounce is a mirage.
Speaker: And then another call out.
Speaker: These are two bundled together Commander Masters, collector
Speaker: Booster box and Lost Caverns Commander deck case.
Speaker: Last week's twin forex sell
Speaker: through stories both dropped out
Speaker: of the movers cohort entirely
Speaker: this week.
Speaker: They did not decline and they did not stabilize.
Speaker: They just went quiet.
Speaker: Volume dried up enough that they
Speaker: fell below the reporting
Speaker: threshold.
Speaker: A cohort drop out is not a thesis confirmed or refuted.
Speaker: It's the data going silent.
Speaker: The supply driven reversal I
Speaker: flagged last week is stalled,
Speaker: not resolved.
Speaker: I will keep checking.
Speaker: There's nothing new to say until transactions pick back up.
Speaker: And finally, on the call outs.
Speaker: Final fantasy Chocobo bundle.
Speaker: Last week, I flagged the seller
Speaker: count, dropping twenty seven
Speaker: percent and said to watch
Speaker: whether it crossed below fifty
Speaker: sellers.
Speaker: It did.
Speaker: Sellers fell to forty five point six this week.
Speaker: Volume weighted average price held essentially flat at two
Speaker: hundred and forty one dollars, while average quantity drained
Speaker: another twenty two percent to ninety six point nine.
Speaker: Sell through cooled from zero
Speaker: point six four to zero point
Speaker: five four, so the buying tempo
Speaker: slowed, but the supply side kept
Speaker: thinning anyway.
Speaker: The product is doing that thing where the pool quietly shrinks
Speaker: while no one is looking at it because the price is not moving.
Speaker: If sellers keep exiting at this
Speaker: rate, the price catches up
Speaker: eventually.
Speaker: And that's it for our call outs from last week.
Speaker: Jumping into some more forward looking thoughts, avatar is
Speaker: doing something weird.
Speaker: This is a quick one, but I want to flag it because it doesn't
Speaker: fit the normal patterns.
Speaker: Avatar The Last Airbender Collector Booster Display drops
Speaker: six percent on price.
Speaker: Normally, when I see a price decline, I look at supply and
Speaker: see inventory growing.
Speaker: That is the standard story.
Speaker: More supply than demand can absorb.
Speaker: Price adjusts.
Speaker: Here supply is down sixteen percent.
Speaker: Sellers are down eight point five percent.
Speaker: The pool is shrinking.
Speaker: Price declining while supply
Speaker: also declines, is not a great
Speaker: signal.
Speaker: It usually means demand is softening.
Speaker: Rather than losing a race against new listings.
Speaker: When sellers are leaving and inventory is dropping and the
Speaker: price still can't hold, the buyers may be drying up.
Speaker: It is twenty five units at three hundred and seventy four volume
Speaker: weighted average price.
Speaker: So this isn't a huge sample, but it's the one product this week
Speaker: where the supply and price combination is going in an
Speaker: unusual direction, and I think it's worth keeping an eye on.
Speaker: If next week's supply drops again and the price drops again,
Speaker: you have a product with a demand problem, not a supply problem.
Speaker: Those behave differently.
Speaker: Two more things foundations.
Speaker: Collector boosted display is doing something familiar.
Speaker: Supply down twenty eight percent.
Speaker: Average quantity at thirty six point two.
Speaker: Sell through zero point six nine.
Speaker: Price coming up to seven hundred and ten.
Speaker: If that average quantity number sounds familiar, it should.
Speaker: Commander Masters collector booster Box was sitting at
Speaker: thirty six when I started flagging it three weeks ago.
Speaker: That product is still draining.
Speaker: Foundations is now at the same inventory level on a product
Speaker: that costs nearly twice as much.
Speaker: I'm not drawing a direct comparison because demand
Speaker: profiles are different, but the supply mechanics are rhyming.
Speaker: Worth a quiet bookmark.
Speaker: And then there's the Doctor Who Commander deck display sell
Speaker: through of zero point nine seven on an average quantity of just
Speaker: twenty two point eight, exactly a one to one ratio.
Speaker: Demand is absorbing supply at exactly the same rate.
Speaker: It appears twenty two units of
Speaker: average quantity is generally
Speaker: thin for any product, and a
Speaker: ratio of zero point nine seven
Speaker: is the kind of ratio where one
Speaker: solid buying weak tips it into
Speaker: crunch territory.
Speaker: It only moved twenty two units
Speaker: for Five thousand eight hundred
Speaker: and sixty eight dollars this
Speaker: week.
Speaker: The dollar volume is small, but
Speaker: the ratio is the interesting
Speaker: part.
Speaker: If sell through ticks above one point zero next week on the same
Speaker: supply base, this quietly becomes one of the tightest
Speaker: products on the market.
Speaker: Jumping into what to watch for next week segment.
Speaker: Five things this week one.
Speaker: Marvel Super-Heroes Collector Booster Display average quantity
Speaker: is two hundred and thirty seven.
Speaker: Sell through is nearly three X, and supply is falling twenty
Speaker: eight percent per week.
Speaker: If that holds, this product reprices upward.
Speaker: If a distributor dump lands and
Speaker: the supply jumps, the whole
Speaker: dynamic resets.
Speaker: The number to watch is average quantity.
Speaker: If it drops below two hundred, the crunch is real.
Speaker: Two districts Haven bundle at forty nine dollars sell through
Speaker: is still decent if the supply build slows and forty nine
Speaker: dollars holds the product line.
Speaker: Repricing within strict Haven is probably done if it breaks below
Speaker: forty nine dollars.
Speaker: On continued inventory growth,
Speaker: there is more room to fall
Speaker: either way, the commander decks
Speaker: seem to be decoupling from the
Speaker: bundle, which is worth noting
Speaker: for anyone holding strict saving
Speaker: sealed three Avatar The Last
Speaker: Airbender Collector Booster
Speaker: Display I want another data
Speaker: point on the price down supply
Speaker: down combination.
Speaker: One week of it is a curiosity.
Speaker: Two weeks of.
Speaker: It is a pattern that tells you something about where collector
Speaker: demand sits for that IP.
Speaker: At the three hundred and seventy
Speaker: five dollars price point for
Speaker: foundations collector booster
Speaker: display at thirty six average
Speaker: quantity if it drops below
Speaker: thirty next week, which with a
Speaker: sell through still above zero
Speaker: point five, that's seven hundred
Speaker: and ten price point starts to
Speaker: look like a flaw rather than a
Speaker: ceiling.
Speaker: This one could quietly move while everyone is watching.
Speaker: Marvel five Doctor Who Commander
Speaker: Deck Display the zero point nine
Speaker: seven sell through on twenty two
Speaker: point eight.
Speaker: Average quantity is right on the edge.
Speaker: If it crosses a sell through ratio of one point zero next
Speaker: week, flag it.
Speaker: If supply drops below twenty, flag it harder.
Speaker: Small dollar volume, but the mechanics are coiled.
Speaker: That's it.
Speaker: Numbers are in their full report on MTG sold article.
Speaker: See you next week.